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Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."