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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.